IF Elfsborg 2-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IF Elfsborg face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Sirius meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sirius have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, IF Elfsborg edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended IF Elfsborg 1–0 Sirius — a IF Elfsborg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus Sirius 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.47 xG and Sirius 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.042 / defence 1.120 | Sirius attack 0.907 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.319. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 35 games and Sirius's last 35.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 25% | Sirius 34%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.48 | Draw 3.97 | Sirius 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 50% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 6 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 25% | Sirius 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG IF Elfsborg 1.47 / Sirius 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.042 / def 1.120 | Sirius attack 0.907 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sirius xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Sirius FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 29 April 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 0 Sirius.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 40% chance of winning, Sirius a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Sirius will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Elfsborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.04) and Sirius's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.91x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 35 games and Sirius's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
40%
2.48
25%
3.97
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.81
1.34
Sirius xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Sirius Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.34 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 33W 14D 13L from 60 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 25L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 18W 8D 4L from their last 30 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 8W 11D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs Sirius (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Sirius Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Sirius away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Sirius away: 1.17 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won Sirius 4-0 IF Elfsborg on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Sirius H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 5, Sirius have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Sirius last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Sirius 2-2 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, Sirius 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 53% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Sirius Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and Sirius matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 47% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Elfsborg and Sirius matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 53% of Sirius's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Sirius matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 67% of Sirius's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Sirius 2-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.47 xG and Sirius 1.34 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sirius landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.12 against Sirius attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 25% | Sirius 34%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.