Malmo FF 5-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Malmo FF at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AIK Stockholm make the trip to Eleda Stadion to face Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Malmo FF at Eleda Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion.
AIK Stockholm's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Malmo FF's favour (2.20 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Malmo FF 3W, AIK Stockholm 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 48% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 62% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.56 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.072 / defence 0.721 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.005 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.312. Malmo FF's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Malmo FF games / 35 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 52% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 23%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | AIK Stockholm 4.35. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 40% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 52% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Malmo FF 1.56 / AIK Stockholm 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.072 / def 0.721 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.005 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
AIK Stockholm xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Malmo FF 5 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 52% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (5 meetings): Malmo FF 3W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.07x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (1.00x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.94
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.51
0.95
AIK Stockholm xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
5%
20.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.95 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Malmo FF come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 11D 16L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (23W 17D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Malmo FF's home form reads 19W 7D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (9W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Malmo FF are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 games (1.83 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.13 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 5-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Malmo FF
4
Draws
1
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 5, AIK Stockholm have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 50%, AIK Stockholm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Malmo FF and 53% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Malmo FF's games and 60% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Malmo FF's matches and 53% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 5-0 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat AIK Stockholm 5-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.56 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.95 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Malmo FF beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.72 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 52% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 23%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 62%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.