IF Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IF Elfsborg face IFK Varnamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
IFK Varnamo travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IF Elfsborg's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Varnamo — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Varnamo away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Elfsborg 1.90 PPG, IFK Varnamo 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, IF Elfsborg have won 2, IFK Varnamo 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended IF Elfsborg 0–1 IFK Varnamo — a IFK Varnamo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | IFK Varnamo 50%). Note also that IFK Varnamo surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while IF Elfsborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.58 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.072 / defence 0.941 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.052 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.563. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 30 games and IFK Varnamo's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 24% | IFK Varnamo 37%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.57 | Draw 4.22 | IFK Varnamo 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and IFK Varnamo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 50% (last 10 home games) | IFK Varnamo 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (IF Elfsborg 30 games, IFK Varnamo 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 1 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 24% | IFK Varnamo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG IF Elfsborg 1.58 / IFK Varnamo 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.072 / def 0.941 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.052 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.563 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.55
IFK Varnamo xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 39% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 30 games and IFK Varnamo's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
39%
2.57
24%
4.22
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.13
1.55
IFK Varnamo xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.55 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 14D 13L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, IFK Varnamo sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (23W 13D 24L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 18W 8D 4L across their last 30 home games, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Varnamo have taken 1.37 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs IFK Varnamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.07 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.37 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 11 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Apr 2022, when IF Elfsborg won IF Elfsborg 4-1 IFK Varnamo.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
5
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 August 2025: IF Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, IFK Varnamo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for IF Elfsborg and 63% for IFK Varnamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of IF Elfsborg's games and 57% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 63% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 77% of IFK Varnamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 1, as IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.58 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.55 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 24% | IFK Varnamo 37%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, IFK Varnamo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.