IF Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IFK Norrkoping make the trip to Borås Arena to face IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Thursday 19 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Elfsborg at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in IF Elfsborg's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and IFK Norrkoping's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of IF Elfsborg's games and 90% of IFK Norrkoping's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, IF Elfsborg edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2024, ended IF Elfsborg 2–4 IFK Norrkoping — a IFK Norrkoping win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 50% versus IFK Norrkoping 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 62% | IFK Norrkoping 65%). Note also that IFK Norrkoping surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while IF Elfsborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.24 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.316 / defence 0.856 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.901 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.364. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.316 — their 2.24 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 52 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 52.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 64% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 17%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.56 | Draw 5.21 | IFK Norrkoping 6.03. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and IFK Norrkoping's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 70% (last 10 home games) | IFK Norrkoping 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 24 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 19 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 64% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG IF Elfsborg 2.24 / IFK Norrkoping 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.316 / def 0.856 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.901 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.05
IFK Norrkoping xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 19 September 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 2 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 24) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 64% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.32x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.90x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 52 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.21
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.29
1.05
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
11%
9.40
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
2%
56.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.05 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 31W 7D 14L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 19W 9D 24L from 52 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Norrkoping.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.23 PPG from their last 26 home games (18W 4D 4L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 6D 13L from their last 26 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 65%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs IFK Norrkoping (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 31W 7D 14L in their last 52 games (1.92 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 19W 9D 24L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.23 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.04 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 16 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2025: IFK Norrkoping 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for IF Elfsborg, 77% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for IF Elfsborg and 73% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IF Elfsborg's games and 77% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 73% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 77% of IFK Norrkoping's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 24, as IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.24 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.05 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.32 / defence 0.86 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 64% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 17%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, IFK Norrkoping 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.