Halmstad 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 41%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and IF Elfsborg meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Halmstad (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Halmstad have posted 5W 0D 5L at Örjans Vall — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Halmstad are significantly better at Örjans Vall than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 1.10 PPG clear of Halmstad in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to IF Elfsborg, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 0–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 45% versus IF Elfsborg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 53% | IF Elfsborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.51 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.823 / defence 0.867 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.137 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.367. Data: 51 Halmstad games / 51 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 41% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | IF Elfsborg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Halmstad at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Halmstad 30% | IF Elfsborg 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 41% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Halmstad 1.51 / IF Elfsborg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.823 / def 0.867 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.137 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.35
IF Elfsborg xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Halmstad 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 41% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Halmstad and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
Record (5 meetings): Halmstad 1W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 4W.
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in?
Halmstad (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.82x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.14x) against Halmstad's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
41%
2.43
25%
4.02
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.86
1.35
IF Elfsborg xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.35 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad come into this having played 51 games, going 16W 9D 26L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.90 PPG from 51 outings (30W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Halmstad — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Halmstad's home form reads 10W 5D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (12W 3D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.98 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 16W 9D 26L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 7D 14L in their last 51 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.40 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Halmstad or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 6-1 on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Halmstad
1
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Halmstad 1-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 32%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Halmstad) and 60% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 40% of games; IF Elfsborg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Halmstad's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Halmstad's recent games and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Halmstad 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Halmstad 0-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.51 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Halmstad fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.82 / defence 0.87 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 41% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 34%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 53%, IF Elfsborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.