Djurgardens IF 1-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kalmar FF's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Kalmar FF's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Djurgardens IF's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Kalmar FF's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Djurgardens IF edge it 4 wins to 3, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2024, ended Djurgardens IF 1–2 Kalmar FF — a Kalmar FF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 46% versus Kalmar FF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | Kalmar FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.61 xG and Kalmar FF 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.861 / defence 0.931 | Kalmar FF attack 1.017 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.208. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Djurgardens IF's projected output up. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 55 games and Kalmar FF's last 55.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 48% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.08 | Draw 4.04 | Kalmar FF 3.69. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 30% (last 10 home games) | Kalmar FF 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 26 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 48% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.61 / Kalmar FF 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.861 / def 0.931 | Kalmar FF attack 1.017 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Kalmar FF xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 48% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.02x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 55 games and Kalmar FF's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.04
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.75
1.14
Kalmar FF xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.14 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 29W 9D 17L from 55 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 26L across 55 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 16W 5D 6L from their last 27 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 8W 5D 14L across their last 27 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.24 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs Kalmar FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 9D 17L in their last 55 games (1.75 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 19W 10D 26L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.96 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Djurgardens IF have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Kalmar FF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 37%, Kalmar FF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Djurgardens IF) and 63% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 59% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 63% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 82% of Kalmar FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF finished level at 1-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.61 xG and Kalmar FF 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Kalmar FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 48% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 27%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Kalmar FF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.