AIK Stockholm 0-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strawberry Arena plays host to AIK Stockholm versus BK Hacken in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strawberry Arena, AIK Stockholm have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strawberry Arena this season.
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward AIK Stockholm. A 1.20 PPG lead over BK Hacken (2.50 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
BK Hacken hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–4 with BK Hacken winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. BK Hacken have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 49% versus BK Hacken 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | BK Hacken 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.89 xG and BK Hacken 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.972 / defence 0.769 | BK Hacken attack 1.083 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.208. BK Hacken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 AIK Stockholm games / 55 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 58% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 20%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | BK Hacken 5.00. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
BK Hacken lead the H2H ledger, but AIK Stockholm carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | BK Hacken 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 58% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.89 / BK Hacken 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.972 / def 0.769 | BK Hacken attack 1.083 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.01
BK Hacken xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken part of?
AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 58% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken?
Record (6 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 5W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.97x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (1.08x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.50
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.89
1.01
BK Hacken xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
3%
33.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.01 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 23W 12D 20L from 55 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 18L across 55 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for AIK Stockholm against 1.69 for BK Hacken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 14W 7D 6L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 8W 6D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.13 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 65%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 28W 9D 18L in their last 55 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or BK Hacken away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.81 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.11 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won 4-1 on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 1, BK Hacken have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when BK Hacken 0-0 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 44%, BK Hacken 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AIK Stockholm) and 67% (BK Hacken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; BK Hacken in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 52% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 67% of BK Hacken's.
Do AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat AIK Stockholm 0-2 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.89 xG and BK Hacken 1.01 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.9 short of their projected output. BK Hacken outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.97 / defence 0.77 against BK Hacken attack 1.08 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 58% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 20%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a BK Hacken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, BK Hacken 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.47 PPG, BK Hacken 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.