Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Sirius meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Degerfors IF (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stora Valla — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Sirius have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.10 for Sirius. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sirius in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sirius, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Sirius have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sirius — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 61% versus Sirius 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | Sirius 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.49 xG and Sirius 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.905 / defence 1.097 | Sirius attack 0.792 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.259. Data: 45 Degerfors IF games / 44 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 30% | Sirius 26%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Sirius 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 30% | Sirius 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Degerfors IF 1.49 / Sirius 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.905 / def 1.097 | Sirius attack 0.792 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sirius xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Sirius kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 15 July 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Degerfors IF 0 - 3 Sirius.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Sirius part of?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 44% chance of winning, Sirius a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Degerfors IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Record (4 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Sirius 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.79x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.32
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.58
1.09
Sirius xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.09 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 11W 12D 21L from 44 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 19L across 44 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.11 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sirius's away record stands at 4W 10D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 11W 12D 21L in their last 44 games (1.02 PPG), while Sirius have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Sirius away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.45 PPG; Sirius away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Sirius in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
6
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Sirius have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 59%, Sirius 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 36% of games; Sirius in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 46% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sirius in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Degerfors IF 0-3 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.49 xG and Sirius 1.09 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sirius outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Sirius attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 30% | Sirius 26%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, Sirius 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sirius's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.02 PPG, Sirius 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.