IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna host Degerfors IF at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Grimsta IP, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 63% and Degerfors IF 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 65% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 xG and Degerfors IF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.717 / defence 1.199 | Degerfors IF attack 0.779 / defence 1.651. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.149. IF Brommapojkarna's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.651 — this is suppressing IF Brommapojkarna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 IF Brommapojkarna games / 44 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 52% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Degerfors IF 4.76. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 50% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 52% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 / Degerfors IF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.717 / def 1.199 | Degerfors IF attack 0.779 / def 1.651 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Degerfors IF xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 52% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.72x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.07
Degerfors IF xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
3%
28.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.07 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 25W 6D 12L from 43 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 21L across 43 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Brommapojkarna by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 13W 3D 4L from 20 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 2W 4D 14L across 20 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.05 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 25W 6D 12L in their last 43 games (1.88 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Degerfors IF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.10 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jun 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF?
From 5 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 65%, Degerfors IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for IF Brommapojkarna and 60% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 60% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 60% of Degerfors IF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 xG and Degerfors IF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Degerfors IF attack 0.78 / defence 1.65, drawn from 13/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 52% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 65%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.