Degerfors IF 0-3 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Gais in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 19 July 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF at Stora Valla this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gais (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Gais have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Gais are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gais in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 62% versus Gais 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Gais 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.72 xG and Gais 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.660 / defence 1.475 | Gais attack 1.125 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.226. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gais's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Degerfors IF games / 45 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 20% | Gais 68%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 8.33 | Draw 5.00 | Gais 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Gais (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 60% | Gais 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 20% | Gais 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 45% | xG Degerfors IF 0.72 / Gais 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.660 / def 1.475 | Gais attack 1.125 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Gais (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Gais xG
45%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Gais kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Gais kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Degerfors IF 0 - 3 Gais.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Gais part of?
Degerfors IF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 12% chance of winning, Gais a 68% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Degerfors IF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Gais in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Gais (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. Flip it around — Gais's attack (1.12x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
12%
8.16
20%
5.07
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.76
2.04
Gais xG
8.16
12%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
13%
7.65
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
2%
62.42
33%
3.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 2.04 for Gais, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 19W 11D 15L from 45 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 12L across 45 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.62 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 4D 8L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 7W 6D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.27 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Gais in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Gais have gone 20W 13D 12L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Gais away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.55 PPG; Gais away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 0-3 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Gais?
From 3 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Gais have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gais 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gais see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 64%, Gais 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Degerfors IF) and 41% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Gais in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Degerfors IF's games and 50% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 41% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Gais tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Gais in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Degerfors IF 0-3 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.72 xG and Gais 2.04 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gais outscored their 2.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.66 / defence 1.48 against Gais attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 20% | Gais 68%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Gais 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.51 PPG, Gais 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.