Real Sociedad 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Sociedad (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Real Sociedad face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Sociedad and Cadiz meet at Reale Arena in La Liga (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Real Sociedad have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Real Sociedad's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cadiz (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Cadiz have posted 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Real Sociedad's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Real Sociedad have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Cadiz managing 0 and 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2023, ended Real Sociedad 0–0 Cadiz — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Real Sociedad an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 50% versus Cadiz 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 41% | Cadiz 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.16 xG and Cadiz 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.808 / defence 1.023 | Cadiz attack 0.643 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.116. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Real Sociedad's last 66 games and Cadiz's last 66.
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 35% | Cadiz 21%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.30 | Draw 2.83 | Cadiz 4.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Real Sociedad's last 10 home games and Cadiz's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Real Sociedad 40% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 35% | Cadiz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Real Sociedad 1.16 / Cadiz 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.808 / def 1.023 | Cadiz attack 0.643 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Cadiz xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Real Sociedad vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Real Sociedad vs Cadiz kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 15 March 2024 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Real Sociedad 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Cadiz part of?
Real Sociedad vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 44% chance of winning, Cadiz a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Real Sociedad and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Real Sociedad vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Real Sociedad's attack rating (0.81) and Cadiz's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.64x) against Real Sociedad's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Real Sociedad's last 66 games and Cadiz's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
44%
2.30
35%
2.83
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
1.89
0.73
Cadiz xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Real Sociedad vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.73 for Cadiz, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Real Sociedad's recent record stands at 32W 18D 16L from 66 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 13W 25D 28L across 66 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Sociedad by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Real Sociedad have managed 16W 10D 6L from their last 32 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 3W 12D 17L across their last 32 away games, a 0.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.76 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
Real Sociedad (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Real Sociedad
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Real Sociedad vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Real Sociedad and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 32W 18D 16L in their last 66 games (1.73 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 13W 25D 28L in their last 66 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Cadiz away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.81 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.66 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cadiz in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Real Sociedad and Cadiz, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Sociedad won Real Sociedad 3-0 Cadiz on 12 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Sociedad have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Real Sociedad
2
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Real Sociedad vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Cadiz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Real Sociedad have won 4, Cadiz have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2024: Real Sociedad 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Cadiz?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Sociedad 50%, Cadiz 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Real Sociedad and 22% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cadiz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Real Sociedad vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Real Sociedad and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 41% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Real Sociedad and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 22% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 50% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Cadiz 2-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.16 xG and Cadiz 0.73 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Cadiz attack 0.64 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 35% | Cadiz 21%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 41%, Cadiz 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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