Real Madrid 5-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (72%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Real Madrid face Alaves.

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Analysis & Preview

Alaves travel to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu to take on Real Madrid in La Liga (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 21:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Real Madrid have gone 9W 1D 0L — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Real Madrid have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Alaves stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Alaves away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Real Madrid: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Alaves, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2023, ended Real Madrid 1–0 Alaves — a Real Madrid win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Real Madrid and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Real Madrid trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

Alaves trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 46% versus Alaves 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 54% | Alaves 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.02 xG and Alaves 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.482 / defence 0.723 | Alaves attack 0.713 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.098. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack rating of 1.482 — their 2.02 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Alaves's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.57. Real Madrid have a tight defence (rating 0.723), which is pulling Alaves's projected output down. Data: built from Real Madrid's last 73 games and Alaves's last 35.

Result probabilities: Real Madrid 72% | Draw 19% | Alaves 9%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.40 | Draw 5.27 | Alaves 10.72. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (72%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Real Madrid 40% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 20% (last 10 away games).

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