Almeria 0-2 Barcelona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Barcelona at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Barcelona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Power Horse Stadium plays host to Almeria versus Barcelona in La Liga (matchday 36). Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 21:30 UK time.
Current Form
Almeria's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Almeria have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Barcelona have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Barcelona's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Barcelona are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Almeria, 2 for Barcelona and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended Almeria 2–3 Barcelona — a Barcelona win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Almeria half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Barcelona half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 64% versus Barcelona 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 63% | Barcelona 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Almeria surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Barcelona have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.02 xG and Barcelona 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.754 / defence 1.420 | Barcelona attack 1.447 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.111. Almeria's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Barcelona have an above-average attack rating of 1.447, which lifts their away xG to 2.28. Almeria's defence rating of 1.420 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Barcelona's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 73 games and Barcelona's last 73.
Result probabilities: Almeria 16% | Draw 19% | Barcelona 66%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 6.41 | Draw 5.34 | Barcelona 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Barcelona (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Barcelona at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almeria's last 10 home games and Barcelona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almeria 40% (last 10 home games) | Barcelona 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Barcelona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 36 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 16% | Draw 19% | Barcelona 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Almeria 1.02 / Barcelona 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.754 / def 1.420 | Barcelona attack 1.447 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Barcelona xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Barcelona FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Barcelona kick off?
Almeria vs Barcelona kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Barcelona?
Almeria 0 - 2 Barcelona.
Where is Almeria vs Barcelona being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Barcelona part of?
Almeria vs Barcelona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 36) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Barcelona?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 16% chance of winning, Barcelona a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Barcelona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Almeria and Barcelona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almeria vs Barcelona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.75x the league average against Barcelona's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Barcelona's attack (1.45x) against Almeria's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 2.28.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 73 games and Barcelona's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
16%
6.41
19%
5.34
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Almeria xG
Total xG
3.30
2.28
Barcelona xG
6.41
16%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
10%
9.80
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
2%
62.80
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Barcelona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Almeria and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Almeria and 2.28 for Barcelona, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Barcelona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Almeria have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 13W 19D 41L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Barcelona's form line: 51W 11D 11L from 73 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Barcelona are the form team by 1.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 36 home games (10W 11D 15L).
On the road, Barcelona have gone 22W 7D 7L from their last 36 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barcelona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almeria are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Barcelona are on 1.95 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Barcelona in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Barcelona
Current Season
Almeria (Home) vs Barcelona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Current Season
Barcelona
Current Season
❓ Almeria vs Barcelona Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Barcelona in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 13W 19D 41L in their last 73 games (0.79 PPG), while Barcelona have gone 51W 11D 11L in their last 73 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Barcelona away?
Barcelona's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.14 PPG; Barcelona away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Almeria or Barcelona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Barcelona in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Almeria and Barcelona, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Barcelona have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Barcelona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
0
Draws
3
Barcelona
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Barcelona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Barcelona?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 1, Barcelona have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Barcelona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2024: Almeria 0-2 Barcelona.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Barcelona?
Barcelona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 61%, Barcelona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Almeria and 61% for Barcelona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Barcelona in 42%; Almeria have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Barcelona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Barcelona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Barcelona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Almeria's games and 56% of Barcelona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almeria and Barcelona matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Almeria's matches and 61% of Barcelona's.
Do Almeria and Barcelona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Almeria's recent matches and 75% of Barcelona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Barcelona cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barcelona beat Almeria 0-2 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.02 xG and Barcelona 2.28 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.75 / defence 1.42 against Barcelona attack 1.45 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 16% | Draw 19% | Barcelona 66%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 63%, Barcelona 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Barcelona's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Barcelona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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