Osasuna 0-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Real Betis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Real Betis in La Liga (matchday 34). Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Osasuna at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Real Betis (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Real Betis's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Real Betis edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Osasuna 1–2 Real Betis — a Real Betis win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Real Betis 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 39% | Real Betis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.21 xG and Real Betis 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.860 / defence 1.176 | Real Betis attack 1.059 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.085. Data: built from Osasuna's last 71 games and Real Betis's last 71.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 33% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 39%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.04 | Draw 3.61 | Real Betis 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osasuna 40% (last 10 home games) | Real Betis 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, matchday 34 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 33% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Osasuna 1.21 / Real Betis 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.860 / def 1.176 | Real Betis attack 1.059 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Real Betis xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Real Betis kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Betis kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Osasuna 0 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Betis part of?
Osasuna vs Real Betis is a La Liga fixture (matchday 34) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 33% chance of winning, Real Betis a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Osasuna and Real Betis will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.86x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (1.06x) against Osasuna's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 71 games and Real Betis's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.61
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.56
1.35
Real Betis xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.35 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 26W 14D 31L from 71 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 29W 22D 20L across 71 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Osasuna against 1.54 for Real Betis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 17W 4D 14L from their last 35 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Betis's away record stands at 12W 10D 13L across their last 35 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.23 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
Osasuna (Home) vs Real Betis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 26W 14D 31L in their last 71 games (1.30 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 29W 22D 20L in their last 71 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Betis away?
Osasuna's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.57 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Real Betis in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won Real Betis 4-1 Osasuna on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
2
Draws
7
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 1, Real Betis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Betis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 40%, Real Betis 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Osasuna) and 46% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 31% of games; Real Betis in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Real Betis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Osasuna's recent matches and 51% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Real Betis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Osasuna's recent games and 46% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Betis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Osasuna's recent matches and 69% of Real Betis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Betis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Osasuna 0-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.21 xG and Real Betis 1.35 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Real Betis attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 33% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 39%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Real Betis 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.30 PPG, Real Betis 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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