Granada CF 3-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osasuna (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Granada CF face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osasuna make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to face Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Granada CF have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Osasuna (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osasuna are 0.60 PPG clear of Granada CF in recent La Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Granada CF lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Granada CF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 53% versus Osasuna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 38% | Osasuna 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.834 / defence 1.218 | Osasuna attack 0.998 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.096. Data: 32 Granada CF games / 70 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 32% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 40%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Osasuna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 50% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 32% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Granada CF 1.16 / Osasuna 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.834 / def 1.218 | Osasuna attack 0.998 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Osasuna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Osasuna kick off?
Granada CF vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Granada CF 3 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Granada CF vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Osasuna part of?
Granada CF vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 32% chance of winning, Osasuna a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Granada CF and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Granada CF and Osasuna in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.00x) against Granada CF's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
32%
3.16
28%
3.53
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.49
1.33
Osasuna xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.33 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Granada CF's recent record stands at 3W 9D 20L from 32 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 15L across 32 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Granada CF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 3W 6D 7L from 16 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 3W 9D 20L in their last 32 games (0.56 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 11W 6D 15L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.94 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Granada CF won 3-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Granada CF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Granada CF
1
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Osasuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 1, Osasuna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Granada CF 3-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 62%, Osasuna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Granada CF) and 50% (Osasuna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Granada CF's games and 56% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Granada CF's recent games and 50% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Osasuna tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Granada CF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Osasuna 3-0 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.33 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Granada CF beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Osasuna attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 32% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 40%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Granada CF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 38%, Osasuna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Granada CF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.