Girona 7-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Municipal de Montilivi plays host to Girona versus Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Girona have posted 8W 1D 1L at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Granada CF (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Granada CF's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Girona's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Girona 1W, Granada CF 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 4–2 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 57% versus Granada CF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 62% | Granada CF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.93 xG and Granada CF 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.504 / defence 0.965 | Granada CF attack 0.689 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.144. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.504 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Girona games / 37 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 81% | Draw 12% | Granada CF 7%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Granada CF 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Girona (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Girona 50% | Granada CF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 81% | Draw 12% | Granada CF 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 50% | xG Girona 2.93 / Granada CF 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.504 / def 0.965 | Granada CF attack 0.689 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Girona (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Granada CF xG
50%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Granada CF kick off?
Girona vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Granada CF?
Girona 7 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Girona vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Granada CF part of?
Girona vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 81% chance of winning, Granada CF a 7% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Girona and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Girona and Granada CF in?
Girona (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Granada CF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.50) and Granada CF's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.69x) against Girona's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
81%
1.23
12%
8.31
7%
14.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Girona xG
Total xG
3.69
0.76
Granada CF xG
1.23
81%
Home win
8.31
12%
Draw
14.79
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
5%
18.75
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Girona and 0.76 for Granada CF, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Girona have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 24W 6D 7L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Granada CF's form line: 4W 9D 24L from 37 games, 0.57 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Girona have posted 2.44 PPG from 18 outings (14W 2D 2L).
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 15L from 18 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.03 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Granada CF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 24W 6D 7L in their last 37 games (2.11 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 4W 9D 24L in their last 37 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Granada CF away?
Girona's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.44 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Girona
0
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Granada CF?
From 2 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Granada CF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2024, when Girona 7-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Granada CF?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Granada CF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Girona) and 44% (Granada CF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Granada CF in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Girona's recent matches and 44% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Girona's matches and 44% of Granada CF's.
Do Girona and Granada CF tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Granada CF 7-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.93 xG and Granada CF 0.76 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.50 / defence 0.96 against Granada CF attack 0.69 / defence 1.38, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 81% | Draw 12% | Granada CF 7%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 81%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 62%, Granada CF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Girona (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.