Valencia 1-3 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Girona at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Girona have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Girona's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Valencia's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Valencia, 2 for Girona and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Girona winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Girona trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 45% versus Girona 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 42% | Girona 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.06 xG and Girona 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.710 / defence 0.808 | Girona attack 1.126 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.096. Valencia's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Valencia games / 74 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 37% | Draw 30% | Girona 33%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Girona 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 40% | Girona 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 37% | Draw 30% | Girona 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Valencia 1.06 / Girona 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.710 / def 0.808 | Girona attack 1.126 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Valencia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Girona xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Girona kick off?
Valencia vs Girona kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Girona?
Valencia 1 - 3 Girona.
Where is Valencia vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Girona part of?
Valencia vs Girona is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 37% chance of winning, Girona a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valencia and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Girona?
Record (3 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 0 | Girona 2W.
What form are Valencia and Girona in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Girona (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valencia's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.30
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.06
1.00
Girona xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Girona, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 74 games, going 24W 18D 32L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Girona sit at 1.68 PPG from 74 outings (36W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Valencia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 16W 11D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Girona have taken 1.27 points per game from 37 outings (12W 11D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.80 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 64%.
Last 74 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Girona in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 24W 18D 32L in their last 74 games (1.22 PPG), while Girona have gone 36W 16D 22L in their last 74 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Girona away?
Valencia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.59 PPG; Girona away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Valencia's record when hosting Girona specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Valencia 2-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 40%, Girona 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Valencia) and 54% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Valencia have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Valencia's recent matches and 65% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Valencia's recent games and 54% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Girona tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Girona in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Valencia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Valencia 1-3 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.06 xG and Girona 1.00 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Girona outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.71 / defence 0.81 against Girona attack 1.13 / defence 1.06, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 37% | Draw 30% | Girona 33%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 42%, Girona 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.