Girona 0-4 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Girona face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 38 as Girona welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atletico Madrid's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atletico Madrid are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Atletico Madrid, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Girona.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Atletico Madrid winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atletico Madrid have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Atletico Madrid trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 55% versus Atletico Madrid 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 59% | Atletico Madrid 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.03 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.873 / defence 1.102 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.883 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.159. Data: 75 Girona games / 75 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 38%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Madrid 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Girona 60% | Atletico Madrid 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Girona 1.03 / Atletico Madrid 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.873 / def 1.102 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.883 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Atletico Madrid xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Girona vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Girona 0 - 4 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Girona vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Girona vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 33% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Girona and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
Record (5 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 4W.
What form are Girona and Atletico Madrid in?
Girona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.39
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Girona xG
Total xG
2.15
1.13
Atletico Madrid xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Girona and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Girona and 1.13 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Girona have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 36W 14D 25L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 45W 14D 16L from 75 games, 1.99 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.63 PPG, Atletico Madrid on 1.99. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.92 PPG from 37 outings (22W 5D 10L).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 15W 9D 13L from 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.99 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.79 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 36W 14D 25L in their last 75 games (1.63 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 45W 14D 16L in their last 75 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Girona's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.92 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Girona or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Atletico Madrid won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
0
Draws
7
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 51%, Atletico Madrid 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Girona) and 38% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 38%; Atletico Madrid in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Girona's recent matches and 35% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Girona's recent games and 38% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico Madrid run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Girona 0-4 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.03 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.13 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Girona fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.88 / defence 0.85, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 38%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 59%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.63 PPG, Atletico Madrid 1.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.