Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atletico Madrid face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atletico Madrid welcome Osasuna to Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in La Liga (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atletico Madrid have gone 7W 0D 3L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atletico Madrid at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Atletico Madrid: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Osasuna, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Atletico Madrid 2–0 Osasuna — a Atletico Madrid win.
The head-to-head data gives Atletico Madrid an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Atletico Madrid trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 50% versus Osasuna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 54% | Osasuna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.08 xG and Osasuna 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.310 / defence 0.909 | Osasuna attack 0.987 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.096. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack rating of 1.310 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atletico Madrid's last 74 games and Osasuna's last 74.
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 63% | Draw 20% | Osasuna 17%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.60 | Draw 4.90 | Osasuna 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Madrid at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atletico Madrid's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 37 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 63% | Draw 20% | Osasuna 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Atletico Madrid 2.08 / Osasuna 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.310 / def 0.909 | Osasuna attack 0.987 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Osasuna xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid 1 - 4 Osasuna.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 37) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 63% chance of winning, Osasuna a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Madrid's last 74 games and Osasuna's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
63%
1.60
20%
4.90
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
3.06
0.98
Osasuna xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
13%
7.99
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
2%
46.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.98 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Madrid come into this having played 74 games, going 46W 12D 16L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.27 PPG from 74 outings (26W 16D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atletico Madrid's home form reads 29W 4D 4L across their last 37 home games, a 2.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 37 away games (9W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.04 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
Atletico Madrid (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 46W 12D 16L in their last 74 games (2.03 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 26W 16D 32L in their last 74 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Osasuna away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.46 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Osasuna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2026, when Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Madrid have won 8, Osasuna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 62%, Osasuna 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Atletico Madrid) and 40% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Madrid and Osasuna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Atletico Madrid's games and 49% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 40% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Madrid and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 73% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osasuna run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Atletico Madrid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Atletico Madrid 1-4 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.08 xG and Osasuna 0.98 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Atletico Madrid fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Osasuna outscored their 0.98 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against Osasuna attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 63% | Draw 20% | Osasuna 17%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 54%, Osasuna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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