Almeria 0-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 36%, yet in-form Mallorca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almeria vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Almeria welcome Mallorca to Power Horse Stadium in La Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 17 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Almeria have gone 0W 2D 8L — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Almeria's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mallorca — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mallorca — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Almeria have won 1, Mallorca 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Almeria 3–0 Mallorca — a Almeria win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Almeria trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mallorca trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 68% versus Mallorca 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 65% | Mallorca 30%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Almeria surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Mallorca have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.45 xG and Mallorca 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.913 / defence 1.405 | Mallorca attack 0.898 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.115. Almeria's defence rating of 1.405 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mallorca's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 54 games and Mallorca's last 54.
Result probabilities: Almeria 36% | Draw 29% | Mallorca 34%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.74 | Draw 3.44 | Mallorca 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.45 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almeria are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mallorca (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almeria's last 10 home games and Mallorca's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almeria 60% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 36% | Draw 29% | Mallorca 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Almeria 1.45 / Mallorca 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.913 / def 1.405 | Mallorca attack 0.898 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Almeria (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Mallorca xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Mallorca FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Mallorca kick off?
Almeria vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Mallorca?
Almeria 0 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Almeria vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Mallorca part of?
Almeria vs Mallorca is a La Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 36% chance of winning, Mallorca a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Almeria and Mallorca will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almeria vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.91x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 54 games and Mallorca's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.44
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.86
1.41
Mallorca xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
8%
12.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Mallorca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Almeria and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Almeria and 1.41 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria come into this having played 54 games, going 11W 12D 31L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.19 PPG from 54 outings (16W 16D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 0.83 PPG, Mallorca on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Almeria's home form reads 10W 6D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.74 points per game from their last 27 away games (5W 5D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.94 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
Almeria (Home) vs Mallorca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Almeria vs Mallorca Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 12D 31L in their last 54 games (0.83 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 16W 16D 22L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Mallorca away?
Almeria's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.33 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Almeria or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Mallorca in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 May 2023, when Almeria won Almeria 3-0 Mallorca.
Almeria's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
2
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Mallorca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Mallorca?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 1, Mallorca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Mallorca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 May 2024: Mallorca 2-2 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 67%, Mallorca 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Almeria) and 41% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Mallorca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Mallorca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Almeria's recent matches and 41% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Almeria and Mallorca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Almeria's recent games and 41% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Mallorca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Almeria's recent matches and 70% of Mallorca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almeria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria and Mallorca finished level at 0-0 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.45 xG and Mallorca 1.41 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Mallorca landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.91 / defence 1.41 against Mallorca attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 36% | Draw 29% | Mallorca 34%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 65%, Mallorca 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 0.83 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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