Girona 3-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Girona welcome Alaves to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 December 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's home record at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this season.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 0W 3D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.38 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.38 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Girona carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Alaves in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 69% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 69% | Alaves 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.80 xG and Alaves 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.271 / defence 1.097 | Alaves attack 0.686 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.098. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Girona games / 16 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 58% | Draw 28% | Alaves 14%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.72 | Draw 3.57 | Alaves 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Girona (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Girona 60% | Alaves 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 18 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 58% | Draw 28% | Alaves 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Girona 1.80 / Alaves 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.271 / def 1.097 | Alaves attack 0.686 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Girona (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Alaves xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Alaves kick off?
Girona vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 18 December 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Alaves?
Girona 3 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Girona vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Alaves part of?
Girona vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 58% chance of winning, Alaves a 14% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Girona and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Alaves in?
Girona (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Alaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Alaves's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
58%
1.73
28%
3.59
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Girona xG
Total xG
2.62
0.83
Alaves xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
42.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Girona and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Girona and 0.83 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona's recent record stands at 13W 2D 1L from 16 games, a 2.56 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 8L across 16 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 1.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Girona have managed 6W 1D 1L from 8 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alaves's away record stands at 0W 3D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Alaves in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 13W 2D 1L in their last 16 games (2.56 PPG), while Alaves have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Alaves away?
Girona's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.38 PPG; Alaves away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2023, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Girona
2
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Alaves?
From 6 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Alaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Alaves?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Alaves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Girona) and 25% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Girona's recent matches and 50% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Girona's recent games and 25% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Alaves tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Alaves in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Alaves 3-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.80 xG and Alaves 0.83 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.27 / defence 1.10 against Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 58% | Draw 28% | Alaves 14%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 69%, Alaves 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.