Alaves 2-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alaves at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mendizorroza plays host to Alaves versus Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Alaves's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Las Palmas have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Las Palmas's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Alaves's 1.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Las Palmas's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Las Palmas and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Alaves 1–1 Las Palmas — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Las Palmas goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 39% versus Las Palmas 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 32% | Las Palmas 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.39 xG and Las Palmas 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.864 / defence 0.828 | Las Palmas attack 0.901 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.002. Data: built from Alaves's last 41 games and Las Palmas's last 41.
Result probabilities: Alaves 51% | Draw 31% | Las Palmas 18%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.98 | Draw 3.23 | Las Palmas 5.41. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 40% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 51% | Draw 31% | Las Palmas 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Alaves 1.39 / Las Palmas 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.864 / def 0.828 | Las Palmas attack 0.901 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Alaves (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Las Palmas xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Las Palmas kick off?
Alaves vs Las Palmas kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Alaves 2 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Alaves vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Las Palmas part of?
Alaves vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 51% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Alaves and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Alaves vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Alaves's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.90x) against Alaves's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 41 games and Las Palmas's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
51%
1.98
31%
3.23
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.14
0.75
Las Palmas xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Alaves and 0.75 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 13W 11D 17L from 41 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 19L across 41 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Alaves against 1.02 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 9W 5D 6L from their last 20 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across their last 20 away games, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.90 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
Alaves (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 10W 12D 19L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Las Palmas away?
Alaves's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.60 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Alaves and Las Palmas, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Alaves
2
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 1, Las Palmas have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: Las Palmas 2-2 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 35% (Alaves) and 35% (Las Palmas) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Alaves and 30% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 30% of games; Las Palmas in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Alaves's recent matches and 35% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Alaves's recent games and 30% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Alaves's recent matches and 60% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Las Palmas.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Las Palmas 2-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.39 xG and Las Palmas 0.75 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.86 / defence 0.83 against Las Palmas attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 51% | Draw 31% | Las Palmas 18%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 32%, Las Palmas 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Las Palmas's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.22 PPG, Las Palmas 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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