Sevilla 0-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 45%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sevilla vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Girona travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Girona's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Girona have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Sevilla's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 1–5 with Girona winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Girona have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Girona trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 58% versus Girona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 51% | Girona 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.54 xG and Girona 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.953 / defence 1.146 | Girona attack 0.999 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.001. Data: 41 Sevilla games / 41 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 45% | Draw 28% | Girona 27%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Girona 3.70. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Girona 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 45% | Draw 28% | Girona 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Sevilla 1.54 / Girona 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.953 / def 1.146 | Girona attack 0.999 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Girona xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Girona kick off?
Sevilla vs Girona kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Sevilla 0 - 2 Girona.
Where is Sevilla vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Girona part of?
Sevilla vs Girona is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 45% chance of winning, Girona a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sevilla and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Girona?
Record (4 meetings): Sevilla 0W | Draws 0 | Girona 4W.
What form are Sevilla and Girona in?
Sevilla (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Girona (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (0.95) and Girona's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.52
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.69
1.15
Girona xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.15 for Girona, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 13D 18L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Girona's form line: 26W 7D 8L from 41 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sevilla.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Girona have gone 10W 4D 6L from 20 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.20 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Girona in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while Girona have gone 26W 7D 8L in their last 41 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.15 PPG; Girona away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Girona in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when Girona won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sevilla's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
5
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Girona have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sevilla 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sevilla at 70%, Girona at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sevilla and 60% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sevilla's games and 60% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sevilla vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sevilla's matches and 60% of Girona's.
Do Sevilla and Girona tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Girona in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sevilla.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Sevilla 0-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.54 xG and Girona 1.15 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sevilla fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Girona outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Girona attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 45% | Draw 28% | Girona 27%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 51%, Girona 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Girona's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.