Alaves 1-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alaves at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Cadiz meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Alaves (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Alaves have posted 4W 1D 4L from their last 9 home games — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Cadiz have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cadiz's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Alaves. A 0.50 PPG lead over Cadiz (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Cadiz edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Alaves 0–1 Cadiz — a Cadiz win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 45% versus Cadiz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 30% | Cadiz 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.15 xG and Cadiz 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.753 / defence 1.102 | Cadiz attack 0.753 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.130. Alaves's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Alaves's last 20 games and Cadiz's last 58.
Result probabilities: Alaves 38% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 28%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.62 | Draw 2.92 | Cadiz 3.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 33% (last 9 home games) | Cadiz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Friday 19 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 38% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Alaves 1.15 / Cadiz 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.753 / def 1.102 | Cadiz attack 0.753 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Alaves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cadiz xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Cadiz kick off?
Alaves vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 19 January 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Cadiz?
Alaves 1 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Alaves vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Cadiz part of?
Alaves vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 38% chance of winning, Cadiz a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Alaves and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Alaves vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.75) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.75x) against Alaves's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 20 games and Cadiz's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
38%
2.62
34%
2.92
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.08
0.94
Cadiz xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Alaves and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Alaves and 0.94 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves's recent record stands at 5W 5D 10L from 20 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 2W 9D 9L across 20 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Alaves against 0.75 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 4W 1D 4L from their last 9 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cadiz's away record stands at 0W 4D 5L across their last 9 away games, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
Alaves (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Alaves vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 9D 9L in their last 20 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Cadiz away?
Alaves's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.44 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Cadiz?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2024: Alaves 1-0 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Cadiz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Alaves and 22% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 44% of games; Cadiz in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 56% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Alaves's recent games and 22% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Alaves's recent matches and 78% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Cadiz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Cadiz 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.15 xG and Cadiz 0.94 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cadiz landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Cadiz attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 38% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 28%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 30%, Cadiz 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.00 PPG, Cadiz 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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