Osasuna 3-2 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Getafe at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Getafe — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Getafe have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.60 (Getafe). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Getafe have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Osasuna.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Getafe winning.
It is worth noting that Getafe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Getafe trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 46% versus Getafe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 39% | Getafe 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.29 xG and Getafe 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.865 / defence 0.953 | Getafe attack 1.173 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.121. Data: 57 Osasuna games / 57 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Getafe 34%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Getafe 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 40% | Getafe 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Getafe 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Osasuna 1.29 / Getafe 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.865 / def 0.953 | Getafe attack 1.173 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Getafe xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Getafe kick off?
Osasuna vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Osasuna 3 - 2 Getafe.
Where is Osasuna vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Getafe part of?
Osasuna vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 36% chance of winning, Getafe a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Osasuna and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
Record (5 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 1 | Getafe 4W.
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Getafe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.86x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.31
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
Getafe xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.25 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 21W 12D 24L from 57 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 21L across 57 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.32 PPG, Getafe on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 14W 4D 11L from 29 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 4W 11D 14L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.02 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Getafe in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Getafe have gone 16W 20D 21L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Getafe away?
Osasuna's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.59 PPG; Getafe away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Getafe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
2
Draws
6
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Getafe have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Getafe 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 41%, Getafe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Osasuna) and 45% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 31% of games; Getafe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Osasuna's recent matches and 48% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osasuna's recent games and 45% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Getafe tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Getafe in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Getafe 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Getafe 3-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.29 xG and Getafe 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Getafe attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Getafe 34%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Getafe 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Getafe 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.