Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 May 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Suwon Bluewings and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2021, ended 0–3 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.263 / defence 0.889 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.908 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.071. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 15 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 35% | Suwon Bluewings 26%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Suwon Bluewings 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 35% | Suwon Bluewings 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 / Suwon Bluewings 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.263 / def 0.889 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.908 / def 0.912 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Suwon Bluewings xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (1 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 0W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.91x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
38%
2.60
35%
2.83
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
1.96
0.86
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.86 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 15 July 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.86 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.89 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 35% | Suwon Bluewings 26%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.