Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 38%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 March 2022 at 06:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 8W 1D 1L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Pohang Steelers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Pohang Steelers 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.17 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.140 / defence 0.949 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.236 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.060. Pohang Steelers have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 38 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Pohang Steelers 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Pohang Steelers 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Mar 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.17 / Pohang Steelers 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.140 / def 0.949 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.236 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pohang Steelers xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 27 March 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 0 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 34% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.63
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
Pohang Steelers xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.24 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 21W 11D 6L from 38 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 16L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pohang Steelers heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 12W 5D 1L from 18 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.08 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.28 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 61%, Pohang Steelers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 33% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pohang Steelers in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 50% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 33% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 2-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.17 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pohang Steelers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.24 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 38%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Pohang Steelers 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.