Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daejeon Citizen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2025, ended 1–2 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Daejeon Citizen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Daejeon Citizen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.357 / defence 1.161 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.042 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.171. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 42 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 37%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Daejeon Citizen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Daejeon Citizen 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 / Daejeon Citizen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.357 / def 1.161 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.042 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Daejeon Citizen xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 4 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 34% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (7 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 3W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.47
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.42
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.42 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 32W 20D 24L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 30W 23D 23L from 76 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 1.87 PPG from 38 outings (21W 8D 9L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 12W 13D 13L from 38 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 30W 23D 23L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
5
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Daejeon Citizen 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 60% (Daejeon Citizen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 66% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 60% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Daejeon Citizen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.42 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.42 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.36 / defence 1.16 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 37%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Daejeon Citizen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.