Suwon City FC 4-3 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's home record at Suwon Sports Complex: 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Seoul have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Suwon City FC, 1.20 for FC Seoul — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 57% versus FC Seoul 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 59% | FC Seoul 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.49 xG and FC Seoul 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.279 / defence 1.255 | FC Seoul attack 0.954 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.154. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Suwon City FC games / 53 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 39% | Draw 27% | FC Seoul 34%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | FC Seoul 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | FC Seoul 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 39% | Draw 27% | FC Seoul 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Suwon City FC 1.49 / FC Seoul 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.279 / def 1.255 | FC Seoul attack 0.954 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC Seoul xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Suwon City FC 4 - 3 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 39% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (0.95x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.74
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.38
FC Seoul xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.38 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 21W 13D 24L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Seoul's form line: 17W 19D 22L from 58 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.21 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (13W 4D 11L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 9W 10D 9L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 21W 13D 24L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 17W 19D 22L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.54 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 0, FC Seoul have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 68%, FC Seoul 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Suwon City FC) and 32% (FC Seoul).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Suwon City FC's games and 57% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 32% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out FC Seoul 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat FC Seoul 4-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.49 xG and FC Seoul 1.38 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.25 against FC Seoul attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 39% | Draw 27% | FC Seoul 34%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 59%, FC Seoul 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.31 PPG, FC Seoul 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.