Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon World Cup Stadium plays host to Suwon Bluewings versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Suwon World Cup Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Suwon Bluewings 1W, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 45% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.92 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.870 / defence 0.946 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.103 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.232. Data: 42 Suwon Bluewings games / 42 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 25% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Suwon Bluewings 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 25% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.92 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.870 / def 0.946 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.103 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Thursday 5 May 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 25% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.10x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
25%
4.02
32%
3.13
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.20
1.28
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
7%
14.55
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.2 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.28 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 10D 16L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.95 PPG from 38 outings (21W 11D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.11 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 July 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 58%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Suwon Bluewings and 63% for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%; Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Suwon Bluewings's matches and 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.92 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 25% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Suwon Bluewings win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Suwon Bluewings winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.