Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.49 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.204 / defence 1.092 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.034 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.011. Data: 6 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 39 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 29%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon Bluewings 3.45. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.49 / Suwon Bluewings 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.204 / def 1.092 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.034 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Suwon Bluewings xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 45% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Suwon Bluewings away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (1.20) and Suwon Bluewings's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.89
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.14
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.14 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 4 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 0, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.49 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.14 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.09 against Suwon Bluewings attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 6/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 29%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.