Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Pohang Steel Yard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 3W 2D 5L at Pohang Steel Yard — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Pohang Steelers) versus 1.70 (Ulsan Hyundai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Pohang Steelers, 4 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Pohang Steelers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 42% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pohang Steelers 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.80 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.663 / defence 0.924 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.130 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.302. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Pohang Steelers games / 54 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 19% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 5.26 | Draw 3.03 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.13. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 10% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 19% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.80 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.663 / def 0.924 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.130 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 19% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (9 meetings): Pohang Steelers 3W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.66x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
19%
5.17
33%
3.00
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.16
1.36
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
5.17
19%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
5%
20.13
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.7 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.36 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 12D 23L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (21W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.42 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (9W 9D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 24W 12D 23L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 15D 23L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.45 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 34%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Pohang Steelers) and 41% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 62% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 41% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 0-2 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.80 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.66 / defence 0.92 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 19% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 34%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.42 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.