Pohang Steelers 0-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Pohang Steelers take on Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Jeju United FC travel to Pohang Steel Yard to take on Pohang Steelers. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Pohang Steel Yard, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeju United FC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.20 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Pohang Steelers, 2 for Jeju United FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Pohang Steelers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (76 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC trading profile (76 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 57% versus Jeju United FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 45% | Jeju United FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.02 xG and Jeju United FC 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.759 / defence 0.764 | Jeju United FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 0.999. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pohang Steelers's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Pohang Steelers games / 39 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 37% | Draw 40% | Jeju United FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.70 | Draw 2.50 | Jeju United FC 4.35. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pohang Steelers 60% | Jeju United FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 37% | Draw 40% | Jeju United FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.02 / Jeju United FC 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.759 / def 0.764 | Jeju United FC attack 1.007 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.247 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Jeju United FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 37% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 23% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
Record (7 meetings): Pohang Steelers 4W | Draws 1 | Jeju United FC 2W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.76) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.72
40%
2.47
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.79
0.77
Jeju United FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.77 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 30W 19D 27L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 76 outings (26W 12D 38L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.43 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 16W 12D 11L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 0.87 points per game from 39 outings (9W 7D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.01 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Jeju United FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.54 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-2 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 54%, Jeju United FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pohang Steelers) and 49% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 54% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 49% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Pohang Steelers 0-2 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.02 xG and Jeju United FC 0.77 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.76 / defence 0.76 against Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 37% | Draw 40% | Jeju United FC 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 45%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.43 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.