Jeju United FC 2-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Jeju United FC welcome FC Seoul to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 July 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.50 (FC Seoul). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FC Seoul trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 55% versus FC Seoul 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 50% | FC Seoul 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.96 xG and FC Seoul 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.914 / defence 0.866 | FC Seoul attack 0.876 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.108. Data: 51 Jeju United FC games / 51 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 30%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | FC Seoul 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — FC Seoul's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 30% | FC Seoul 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Jeju United FC 0.96 / FC Seoul 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.914 / def 0.866 | FC Seoul attack 0.876 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC Seoul xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Jeju United FC 2 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 37% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Jeju United FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against FC Seoul's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
37%
2.71
33%
3.05
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.80
0.84
FC Seoul xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 13.8 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.84 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 20W 21D 15L from 56 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Seoul, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 21L across 56 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.45 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 10W 10D 7L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Seoul's away record stands at 9W 9D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 56 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 20W 21D 15L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 17W 18D 21L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.48 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 5, FC Seoul have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 59%, FC Seoul 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Jeju United FC) and 30% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Seoul in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Jeju United FC's games and 56% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 30% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Jeju United FC and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Jeju United FC and FC Seoul drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.96 xG and FC Seoul 0.84 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against FC Seoul attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 30%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 50%, FC Seoul 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Seoul's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.45 PPG, FC Seoul 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.