Incheon United 3-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Incheon United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Incheon United 1.60 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Incheon United have won 0, Jeonbuk Motors 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Jeonbuk Motors 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Incheon United 38% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.13 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.784 / defence 0.902 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.943 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.116. Incheon United's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Incheon United games / 42 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 37% | Draw 36% | Jeonbuk Motors 27%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 37% | Draw 36% | Jeonbuk Motors 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Incheon United 1.13 / Jeonbuk Motors 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.784 / def 0.902 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.943 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Jeonbuk Motors xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Incheon United 3 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 37% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (4 meetings): Incheon United 0W | Draws 2 | Jeonbuk Motors 2W.
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Incheon United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.78) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
37%
2.73
36%
2.77
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.08
0.95
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.95 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 29D 20L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.71 PPG from 76 outings (37W 19D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.45 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Incheon United's home form reads 14W 15D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.68 points per game from 38 outings (19W 7D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.33 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 27W 29D 20L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 19D 20L in their last 76 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.50 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Incheon United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2024, when Incheon United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Incheon United 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 47%, Jeonbuk Motors 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Incheon United) and 45% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 37%; Incheon United have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Incheon United's recent matches and 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Incheon United's recent games and 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Incheon United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.13 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.95 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeonbuk Motors landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.78 / defence 0.90 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 37% | Draw 36% | Jeonbuk Motors 27%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Jeonbuk Motors 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.45 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.