Incheon United 0-3 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Jeju United FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 April 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.04 xG and Jeju United FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.997 / defence 1.062 | Jeju United FC attack 0.696 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 0.995. Data: 9 Incheon United games / 9 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 39% | Draw 38% | Jeju United FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.56 | Draw 2.63 | Jeju United FC 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 39% | Draw 38% | Jeju United FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Incheon United 1.04 / Jeju United FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.997 / def 1.062 | Jeju United FC attack 0.696 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.031 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Jeju United FC xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Incheon United 0 - 3 Jeju United FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC part of?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 39% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Incheon United and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.70x) against Incheon United's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
39%
2.56
38%
2.62
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.77
0.74
Jeju United FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.74 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Incheon United
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Jeju United FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Incheon United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Incheon United 0-3 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.04 xG and Jeju United FC 0.74 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Incheon United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Jeju United FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 39% | Draw 38% | Jeju United FC 23%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.