Gwangju FC 2-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39%, yet in-form Gwangju FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Gwangju FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Gwangju Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 June 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Gwangju FC's home record at Gwangju Football Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gwangju Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Gwangju FC are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gwangju FC, 1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gwangju FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 34% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gwangju FC 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.18 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.965 / defence 1.226 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.912 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.169. Data: 49 Gwangju FC games / 16 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 34% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gwangju FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gwangju FC 10% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jun 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 34% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Gwangju FC 1.18 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.965 / def 1.226 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.912 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 June 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gwangju FC 2 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 34% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gwangju FC 0W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.96) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.70
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.31
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.31 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 16W 11D 11L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 7W 13D 18L from 38 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Gwangju FC are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 8D 8L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 61%.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 7W 13D 18L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
4
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 16%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Gwangju FC) and 53% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 16% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 68% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 53% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.18 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 34% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 26%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.