Gangwon FC 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC meet at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 June 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Gangwon FC's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Gangwon FC, 1 for Suwon City FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 53% versus Suwon City FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 37% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.81 xG and Suwon City FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.283 / defence 1.140 | Suwon City FC attack 0.998 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.152. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Gangwon FC games / 49 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Suwon City FC 3.57. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 80% | Suwon City FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Gangwon FC 1.81 / Suwon City FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.283 / def 1.140 | Suwon City FC attack 0.998 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Suwon City FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 June 2024 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 49% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Gangwon FC 2W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.28) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.00x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.35
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.31
Suwon City FC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.31 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 78 games, going 21W 24D 33L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.08 PPG from 78 outings (22W 18D 38L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.08 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 12W 11D 15L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 0.87 points per game from 38 outings (8W 9D 21L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 62%.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 21W 24D 33L in their last 78 games (1.12 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 38L in their last 78 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.24 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
3
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 60%, Suwon City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gangwon FC) and 53% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gangwon FC's games and 50% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.81 xG and Suwon City FC 1.31 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.14 against Suwon City FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 28%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 37%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.12 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.