Gangwon FC 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Gangwon FC welcome Jeju United FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.40 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Gangwon FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 8 past contests while Jeju United FC have managed just 0 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Gangwon FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Jeju United FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 49% | Jeju United FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.37 xG and Jeju United FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.961 / defence 0.974 | Jeju United FC attack 0.952 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.196. Data: 36 Gangwon FC games / 37 Jeju United FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 39% | Draw 34% | Jeju United FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Jeju United FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 40% | Jeju United FC 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 39% | Draw 34% | Jeju United FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Gangwon FC 1.37 / Jeju United FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.961 / def 0.974 | Jeju United FC attack 0.952 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Jeju United FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 39% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (8 meetings): Gangwon FC 3W | Draws 5 | Jeju United FC 0W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
39%
2.56
34%
2.90
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.11
Jeju United FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.11 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 20D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 76 outings (26W 12D 38L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.53 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gangwon FC's home form reads 18W 14D 6L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 0.89 points per game from 38 outings (9W 7D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.01 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.79 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gangwon FC
7
Draws
0
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 50%, Jeju United FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gangwon FC) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 55% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC finished level at 1-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.37 xG and Jeju United FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Jeju United FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 39% | Draw 34% | Jeju United FC 26%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 49%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.