Gangwon FC 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Gangwon FC welcome Daegu FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Gangneung Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Gangneung Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Gangwon FC) versus 1.40 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Daegu FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 45% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.04 xG and Daegu FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.052 / defence 0.926 | Daegu FC attack 0.984 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 1.029. Data: 36 Gangwon FC games / 36 Daegu FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 37% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Daegu FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 60% | Daegu FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 37% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Gangwon FC 1.04 / Daegu FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.052 / def 0.926 | Daegu FC attack 0.984 / def 1.034 | league avg home 0.961 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Daegu FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 37% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gangwon FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.05) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.23
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
1.98
0.94
Daegu FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.94 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Daegu FC's form line: 15W 10D 13L from 38 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.21 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (8W 8D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
4
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 47%, Daegu FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gangwon FC) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Daegu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 53% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.04 xG and Daegu FC 0.94 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Daegu FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 37% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 32%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 45%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG, Daegu FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.