FC Seoul 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 June 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul World Cup Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Seoul World Cup Stadium this season.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Seoul at 2.10 PPG versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 50% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 45% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.05 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.078 / defence 1.036 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.212 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.122. Ulsan Hyundai FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 FC Seoul games / 49 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 28% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: FC Seoul 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jun 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 28% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Seoul 1.05 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.078 / def 1.036 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.212 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 22 June 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 28% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Seoul's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
28%
3.55
27%
3.74
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.46
1.41
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
7%
14.54
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.41 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 6L across 38 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Seoul heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 8W 6D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.11 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Seoul keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%; FC Seoul have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Seoul's matches and 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out FC Seoul 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Seoul 1-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.05 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.80, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 28% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 45%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 45%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.