FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Anyang have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Anyang at Anyang Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for FC Anyang against 1.30 for Jeonbuk Motors. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Jeonbuk Motors have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to FC Anyang's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Jeonbuk Motors have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 65% versus Jeonbuk Motors 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 52% | Jeonbuk Motors 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.04 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.010 / defence 1.378 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.879 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.319. Data: 59 FC Anyang games / 60 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 21% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.13. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 21% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Anyang 1.04 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 1.010 / def 1.378 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.879 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Jeonbuk Motors xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors is scheduled to kick off at 05:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
Where is FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 21% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (5 meetings): FC Anyang 0W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 4W.
What form are FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Anyang's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.88x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
21%
4.68
32%
3.16
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.63
1.60
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.68
21%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
4%
23.10
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.60 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, FC Anyang have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 22W 17D 26L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 34W 19D 12L from 65 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Anyang.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Anyang have posted 1.31 PPG from 32 outings (11W 9D 12L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 15W 12D 5L from 32 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Anyang are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.51 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 34W 19D 12L in their last 65 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.31 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.78 PPG.
Have FC Anyang or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Anyang have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since March 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
FC Anyang
1
Draws
4
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 0, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FC Anyang 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 62%, Jeonbuk Motors 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Anyang) and 28% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 50%; FC Anyang have failed to score in 31% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 41% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Anyang's recent games and 28% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.