Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Gwangju FC travel to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to take on Daejeon Citizen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 June 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daejeon Citizen stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 4W 4D 2L at Daejeon World Cup Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Daejeon Citizen 1.40 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Daejeon Citizen, 2 for Gwangju FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Gwangju FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Daejeon Citizen in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gwangju FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 63% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Daejeon Citizen 53% | Gwangju FC 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Gwangju FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.799 / defence 0.823 | Gwangju FC attack 1.157 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.141. Daejeon Citizen's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Daejeon Citizen games / 50 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Gwangju FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daejeon Citizen at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Daejeon Citizen 60% | Gwangju FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jun 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.22 / Gwangju FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.799 / def 0.823 | Gwangju FC attack 1.157 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Gwangju FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 June 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Daejeon Citizen 2 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC?
Record (2 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 0W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 2W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Daejeon Citizen's attack at 0.80x the league average against Gwangju FC's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.54
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.31
1.09
Gwangju FC xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.09 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 12W 15D 11L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Gwangju FC's form line: 16W 11D 11L from 38 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daejeon Citizen on 1.34 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 7W 7D 5L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gwangju FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 12W 15D 11L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Gwangju FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.58 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daejeon Citizen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Daejeon Citizen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
3
Draws
3
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 58%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Daejeon Citizen) and 26% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC in 32%; Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 26% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Gwangju FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Gwangju FC 2-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Gwangju FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.80 / defence 0.82 against Gwangju FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 33%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 53%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.34 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.