Daegu FC 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to DGB Arena to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 May 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.94 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.003 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.055 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.181. Data: 16 Daegu FC games / 15 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 26% | Draw 33% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 26% | Draw 33% | Jeonbuk Motors 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Daegu FC 0.94 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.000 / def 1.003 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.055 / def 0.959 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 26% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
26%
3.89
33%
3.01
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
13.59
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.9 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.25 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.94 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 26% | Draw 33% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.