Al Shabab 2-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 38%, yet in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 13 February 2025 at 15:25 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Al-Shabab Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Shabab winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 63% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 63% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.36 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.208 / defence 0.968 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.042 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.323. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Al Shabab games / 19 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Feb 2025, 15:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Shabab 1.36 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.208 / def 0.968 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.042 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 15:25 on Thursday 13 February 2025 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Shabab 2 - 3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 38% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.21x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.87
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.70
1.33
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.33 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab come into this having played 19 games, going 10W 2D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (13W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Shabab's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.53 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 10W 2D 7L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 13W 2D 4L in their last 19 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.90 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
1
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 80%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al Shabab and 50% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al Shabab's games and 40% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al Shabab's matches and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Shabab 2-3 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.36 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.72, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 36%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 63%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.