Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Riyadh face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Riyadh — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 2.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Al Riyadh.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 60% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Riyadh 58% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.98 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.754 / defence 1.139 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.412 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.493. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Al Riyadh games / 50 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 13% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 7.69 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 13% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Riyadh 0.98 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.754 / def 1.139 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.412 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.493 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Riyadh 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 13% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Riyadh's attack at 0.75x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
13%
7.69
19%
5.29
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
3.38
2.40
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
7.69
13%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
9%
11.03
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
1%
84.81
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 2.40 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Al Riyadh have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 12D 26L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 37W 8D 5L from 50 games, 2.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Riyadh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Riyadh have posted 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 16W 5D 3L from 24 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.78 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 12W 12D 26L in their last 50 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 37W 8D 5L in their last 50 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.04 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
2
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Riyadh) and 71% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 33%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Riyadh's games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Al Riyadh's matches and 71% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 1-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.98 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.40 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.75 / defence 1.14 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 13% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.