Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.50 for Al-Nassr. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Nassr in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Qadisiyah FC, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Al-Nassr — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Qadisiyah FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% versus Al-Nassr 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al-Nassr 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 xG and Al-Nassr 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.342 / defence 1.053 | Al-Nassr attack 1.333 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.432. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 44 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al-Nassr 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 74% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 / Al-Nassr 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.342 / def 1.053 | Al-Nassr attack 1.333 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Al-Nassr xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 34% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.33x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
34%
2.99
25%
4.07
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.80
2.01
Al-Nassr xG
2.99
34%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.83
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
4%
22.26
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 2.01 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 30W 9D 5L from 44 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 36W 3D 5L across 44 games — 2.52 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.25 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.52 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 13W 7D 2L from 22 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 16W 2D 4L across 22 trips, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.59 scored and 0.82 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's scoring rate against Al-Nassr's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 30W 9D 5L in their last 44 games (2.25 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 36W 3D 5L in their last 44 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.09 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, Al-Nassr have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%, Al-Nassr 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 73% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 54% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 73% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.