Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 8W 2D 0L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.50 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.348 / defence 0.636 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.334 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.423. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.636 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 51 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.348 / def 0.636 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.334 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 29 January 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 50% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.35) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.98
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.00
1.21
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
4%
24.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.21 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 51 games, going 33W 8D 10L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.35 PPG from 51 outings (37W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.10 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 19W 4D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.16 points per game from 25 outings (16W 6D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.75 scored and 1.12 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking output running into Al-Qadisiyah FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 65%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 33W 8D 10L in their last 51 games (2.10 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 37W 9D 5L in their last 51 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.44 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 68% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.21 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.64 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 25%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.10 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.