Al Okhdood 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Damac (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Okhdood face Damac.

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Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Damac at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Thursday 13 February 2025 at 14:10 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Okhdood — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Damac stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Damac away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Damac have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al Okhdood. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Al Okhdood 1–3 Damac — a Damac win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Damac have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Damac in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 49% versus Damac 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 55% | Damac 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Okhdood surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Damac have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.15 xG and Damac 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.725 / defence 1.129 | Damac attack 0.951 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.336. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 53 games and Damac's last 53.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Damac 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.29 | Draw 3.82 | Damac 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 home games) | Damac 70% (last 10 away games).

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