Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (87%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Riyadh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al Riyadh to Kingdom Arena in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Friday 14 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al Riyadh have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al Riyadh's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 60% of Al Riyadh's (from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al Riyadh and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–0 Al Riyadh — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Riyadh trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% versus Al Riyadh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Al Riyadh 55%). Note also that Al Riyadh surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 83% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.82 xG and Al Riyadh 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.911 / defence 0.754 | Al Riyadh attack 0.913 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.344. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.911 — their 3.82 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 1.270 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output up. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a tight defence (rating 0.754), which is pulling Al Riyadh's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 53 games and Al Riyadh's last 53.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 87% | Draw 8% | Al Riyadh 5%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.15 | Draw 12.48 | Al Riyadh 21.05. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (87%) — a 79pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 4.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 87% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.74 combined xG gives a 85% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 14 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 87% | Draw 8% | Al Riyadh 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% (Under 15%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.82 / Al Riyadh 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.911 / def 0.754 | Al Riyadh attack 0.913 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.82
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al Riyadh xG
59%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 14 February 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 87% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 5% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.91) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 3.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 53 games and Al Riyadh's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 4-0 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
87%
1.15
8%
12.48
5%
21.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
7.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.82
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
4.74
0.93
Al Riyadh xG
1.15
87%
Home win
12.48
8%
Draw
21.05
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
51%
Over 4.5
1.96
49%
Under 4.5
2.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
2%
45.51
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 3.82 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.93 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 4.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 46W 5D 2L from 53 games, a 2.70 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 22L across 53 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 25W 1D 0L from their last 26 home games — 2.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 3.02 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.06 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 46W 5D 2L in their last 53 games (2.70 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.92 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Sep 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-1 Al Riyadh.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al Riyadh 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 65% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Al Riyadh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 62% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 65% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 73% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.82 xG and Al Riyadh 0.93 xG, a combined 4.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.91 / defence 0.75 against Al Riyadh attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 87% | Draw 8% | Al Riyadh 5%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 87%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%, Al Riyadh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.